A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
